On The Land
20 September, 2025
Record-breaking levels for beef exports
A COMBINATION of stronger global beef markets, favourable seasonal conditions in key Australian beef-producing regions and higher local cattle inventory is supporting record-breaking production volumes, according to a new report.
In its Q3 2025 Global Beef Quarterly, the bank’s RaboResearch division says second quarter Australian cattle slaughter numbers were up 10% year-on-year (YOY) and with heavier carcass weights.
This meant production volumes were up 11% YOY for the quarter, setting a new record.
June was a new record volume for Australian beef exports at 134,596 tonnes shipped weight (swt), but volumes in July jumped a further 11% to 150,435 tonnes swt – the highest monthly volume ever recorded.
Report lead author, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird, said export volumes for the year to the end of July were up 17%, with volumes to the US up 23%, China up 43% and South Korea up 9%.
“Given current Australian cattle inventory and seasonal conditions, we believe production volumes will continue at current levels, allowing exports to maintain their strong volumes,” he said.
Mr Gidley-Baird said the Australian market was waiting to see the impact of additional US tariffs on Brazil and whether that reduced Brazilian exports to the US, resulting in an increased demand for Australian product.
The Rabobank report said geopolitics and seasonal conditions are shaping global beef trade flows.
“Global cattle prices keep rising as global production volumes are contracting,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“Imports from Brazil into the US were up 107% compared to last year in the first half of 2025, but higher tariffs will have a material impact on the trade between Brazil and the US,” he said.
Global cattle prices all continued their rise through quarter two, the report said.
“Northern hemisphere countries continue to stand out at record prices,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“But prices in the US and Canada moderated in July, suggesting some of the heat is going out of the market.”
Meanwhile, prices in southern hemisphere countries continued to increase.
“The reduced volumes of beef in the North American market, plus what appears to be a slight improvement in the Chinese market have generated stronger demand for southern hemisphere beef suppliers. This demand is now flowing through to cattle prices,” he said.
Led by contractions in Europe, New Zealand and US, global beef production continued to decline into quarter two, with total volumes down in the first half of the year.
“Australia and China have increased production in the first half of the year, compared to 2024,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“RaboResearch analysts believe that production is likely to continue following these trends with an overall contraction of 2% expected for 2025.”
